摘 要

Abstract 6

第一章 绪论 3

1.1研究背景目的和意义 3

1.2国内外研究经验的启迪 4

1.3本章小结 6

第二章、国内老人公交现状分析 6

2.1老人公交国内现状调查 6

2.1.1我国老龄化现象 6

2.1.2我国老龄人口出行情况及问题 7

2.1.3改善老年人交通环境 9

2.2.1出行率． 10

2.2.2交通方式． 11

2.2.3出行目的． 11

2.2.4出行时间分布． 12

2.2.5出行距离分布． 12

2.2.6出行的出发时间． 13

2.2.7 研究结论 15

2.3本章小结 15

第三章 国内老年人出行行为影响因素 17

3.1 老年人出行选择行为影响因素调查 17

3.1.1 出行率随年龄的变化趋势． 17

3.1.2 出行时间随年龄的变化趋势． 17

3.1.3 出行距离随年龄的变化趋势． 18

3.1.4 使用交通方式随年龄的变化趋势． 18

3.1.5老年人出行目的随年龄的变化趋势． 19

3.1.6 不同性别老年人出行随年龄的变化分析． 20

3.1.7有无配偶对老年人出行行为的影响． 20

3.2本章小结 21

第四章 公交专线网评价指标 22

4.1建立公交线网评价指标体系的必要性 22

4.2评价指标的分类与选取 23

4.2.1城市公共交通规划后评价指标体系构建原则 23

4.2.2评价指标筛选的原则 23

4.2.3评价指标的选取 23

4.3本章小结 24

第五章、老年人专线公交线网评价模型 25

5.1合理设计评价模型 25

5.1.1建立老人公交线网的评价指标体系 25

5.1.2老人公交线网评价指标的量化处理 26

5.1.3老人公交线网评价指标的评语等级 27

5.1.4老人公交线网评价原理 28

5.2应用分析 31

5.2.1南京市老人公交线网调查 31

5.2.2南京市老人公交线网评价 35

5.2.2结果分析及适应老龄社会城市交通对策 36

第六章 结论 38

致 谢 39

参考文献 40

摘 要

我研究的课题是老人公交线网方案评价模型研究。我国逐渐步入“老龄化”社会，老年人与中青年人群在出行方面的矛盾日益凸显，因此有必要对于开行老人专线公交进行研究，分离老年人的出行人流，缓和其与其他人群之间的矛盾。依据老人的出行特征，结合公交线网现有的评价指标，建立符合老人公交特色的线网方案评价指标，我建立了具有实用性的老人专线公交线网方案评价模型，最后提出具有一定可行性的老人专线公交线网布局的建议。

方案评价是一个推理、决策的行为。综合老人公交线网方案的具体规模和可行性，分析老人公交线网方案评价指标体系，并对指标体系进行量化处理。在研究过程中，首先要调查研究建立老人公交线网评价指标体系的必要性和评价指标体系构建原则。

第一阶段，我具体调查了国内老人公交现状。在社会普遍存在的老龄化现象越来越突出的背景下，重点分析老龄人口的出行行为特征。从而了解国内老人出行特点。具体得出老人出行行为因素包括：出行率，交通方式，出行目的，出行时间分布，出行距离分布，出行出发时间等。因为课题中心思想是研究老人公交线网方案，所以前期工作是分析老人出行行为因素随老人年龄的变化趋势。通过上述工作，我统计并确立老人公交线网中具体合适的评价指标。第二阶段，我分析了国内城市公交线网评价方法，从中选出最优方案合理设计建立评价模型，代入老人公交线网中影响老人出行行为的各个变量，并具体分析特殊因素的影响。第三阶段，通过已建立的评价模型和合适的评价指标，具体评价国内现有老人公交线网，分析得出老人公交线网改良方案，发现国内老人公交线网现状存在的缺陷，得出老人公交线网改良方案。最终进行有效改进，并逐步改善老年人的出行环境，通过老人公交线网方案评价模型研究，对改善交通系统的设计与运行管理，使交通运输服务体系更好地服务我国老年人有着重要的意义．

关键字：老人 公交线网 评价

Abstract

My research topic is the old model of program evaluation public transportation network. China gradually into the "aging" society, the elderly and young people in the travel aspects of the conflict has become increasingly prominent, it is necessary to open the line for the bus line to study the elderly, isolated elderly passenger travel, and other groups to ease between the contradiction. Travel based on characteristics of the elderly, combined with evaluation of existing transit network, and establishing the characteristics of the elderly bus line network program evaluation, I created the old green bus network with practical program evaluation model, Finally, it is feasible old green bus network layout of the proposal.

Program evaluation is a reasoning, decision-making behavior. Comprehensive public transportation network for the elderly and the feasibility of the exact size of the program, analyze program evaluation index system of public transportation network for the elderly, and the index system of quantification. In the study, the first research to establish evaluation index system for the elderly need public transportation network and the principles of evaluation index system.

The first stage, I specifically investigated the status of the domestic transportation for the elderly. Prevalent in the aging of society has become increasingly prominent in the context of the phenomenon, focusing on analysis of travel behavior characteristics of the elderly population. To understand characteristics of domestic travel for the elderly. Come elderly travel behavior specific factors include: travel rates, transportation, trip purpose, travel time distribution, distribution of trip distance, travel time of departure. Because the central idea is to study the subject of public transportation network programs for the elderly, so the preliminary work is to analyze the factors of the elderly travel behavior trends with old age. Through this work, I establish the old statistics and public transportation network in the proper evaluation of specific indicators. The second stage, my analysis of the domestic urban public transportation network evaluation method, the program reasonably designed to choose the best evaluation model, on behalf of the elderly into the old public transportation network in the travel behavior of the variables, and specific analysis of specific factors. The third stage, through the established evaluation model and the appropriate evaluation and specific evaluation of the existing domestic public transportation network for the elderly, improved public transportation network analysis programs for the elderly obtained, found that the domestic status of elderly public transportation network defects, obtained for the elderly public transportation network improvement programs. Effectively improve the end, and gradually improve the elderly's travel environment, program evaluation through the old model of public transportation network, to improve the design and operation of transportation system management, transportation service system to better serve the elderly in China is significant .