基于最优化理论的老人专线公交线网规模研究毕业论文

 2021-04-20 10:04

摘 要

改革开放三十年来,随着我国经济的飞速发展,人民的生活水平不断提高,国家的医疗技术越来越先进,使得我国人口的平均寿命逐步上升,社会老龄化问题日趋严重。

本文以我国当前的社会老龄化问题为出发点,通过分析世界人口老龄化现状及我国人口老龄化发展中存在的问题,深入探讨我国的城市道路交通现状、城市公交现状和我国老年人的出行特征、影响老人出行行为的各种因素等问题后,提出了开设城市老人专线公交的构想。

提出开设城市老人专线公交的构想后,本文介绍了城市公交线网规模的涵义,在此基础上重点运用系统结构模型对线网规模的影响因素进行了分析: 合理规模的影响因素主要包括城市规模、城市交通需求、居民出行特征、城市未来交通发展战略与政策、国家政策等;本文构造出线网规模影响因素的有向连接图,最终确立了线网规模影响因素的递阶多级结构模型,并通过讨论影响城市公交线网规模的因素,介绍了几种确定城市公交线网规模模型的方法,包括根据城市交通需求匡算合理的线网规模以及根据路网密度来匡算合理的线网规模。合理的城市公交线网规模不仅是线网规划的宏观控制量,也是一项非常重要的投资依据。

最后,本章分析了南京地区老年人口的情况,并结合南京的实际情况,构造了一个南京市区老人专线公交的线网模型。并通过运用最优化理论的知识,从城市的交通需求和路网密度两方面匡算出合理的南京市区老人专线公交线网规模的模型。通过对比和分析不同的匡算结果,提出了南京市主城区老人专线公交的近期与远景线网规划的合理规模,其结果对指导南京城市公交线网的优化和城市交通政策的制定具有重要意义。

关键词:老龄化 老人专线公交 线网规模 交通现状 最优化理论

Abstract

Since the reform and opening up three decades ago, with Chinese rapid economic development, the improvement of people's living standards, the country's increasingly sophisticated medical technology, making the average life expectancy of our population gradually increased, growing aging society.
In this paper, our current aging society as a starting point, the aging of the world's population by analyzing the situation and the development of Chinese aging population problem, in-depth study of the urban road traffic situation, city bus travel status and characteristics of the elderly, elderly travel behavior of the various factors and other issues, the proposed creation of the concept of urban elderly bus line.
Proposed creation of the concept of the city bus line for the elderly, this paper describes the meaning of the scale of the urban public transportation network, focus on this basis, the use of the route network structure model scale factors were analyzed: a reasonable scale of factors including the size of cities , urban transportation needs, residents travel characteristics, urban future transport development strategies and policies, national policy; this outlet size of the network structure factors are the connectivity graph, the final size of the network to establish a line of multi-level hierarchical factor structure model and by discussing the factors that affect the size of urban public transportation network, introduced several scale models of urban public transportation network methods, including calculations based on reasonable demand for urban transport route network size and density of road network to calculations based on a reasonable line of network size. A reasonable scale of urban public transportation network is not only the network planning of the macro-control volume, is also a very important investment basis.
Finally, this chapter analyzes the situation of the elderly population in Nanjing, and Nanjing, with the actual situation of the elderly in Nanjing construct a dedicated bus line network model. Through the use of optimization theory and knowledge, from the city's traffic demand and road network density calculations two elderly people in Nanjing at a reasonable scale model of green public transportation network. By comparing the different calculations and analysis results, the main city of Nanjing for the elderly and the vision of the recent bus line network planning of reasonable size, and the results guiding the optimization of urban public transportation network in Nanjing urban transport policy development is important.

Key words: Aging;Specialized transit for the old;Network scale;Traffic current situation;Optimization theory

目录

第一章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究的目的及意义 2

1.3 国内外研究概况 3

1.4 本文的主要内容和研究框架 5

第二章 人口老龄化的现状及其发展趋势 6

2.1 世界人口老龄化的发展历史、现状及影响 6

2.1.1 世界人口老龄化的发展历史 6

2.1.2 世界人口老龄化的现状 6

2.1.3 世界人口老龄化带来的影响 6

2.2 我国人口的发展历史 7

2.2.1 新中国成立之前我国的人口发展状况 7

2.2.2 新中国成立以来我国的人口发展情况 8

2.3 我国人口的发展现状及存在问题 9

2.3.1 我国人口的发展现状 9

2.3.2 我国人口发展存在的问题 9

2.4 我国人口老龄化的现状特征及发展趋势 10

2.5 我国人口老龄化问题对社会可持续发展的影响 12

第三章 我国城市道路的交通现状分析及老人出行特征分析 13

3.1 我国城市道路的交通现状分析 13

3.1.1 我国城市道路的交通现状 13

3.1.2 我国城市现有交通存在问题的分析 13

3.1.3 我国城市道路交通问题的解决措施 14

3.2 我国城市公交现状分析 16

3.2.1 我国城市公交的现状 16

3.2.2 我国城市公交存在的主要问题 16

3.2.3 解决我国城市公交问题的有效措施 17

3.3 我国老人出行特征及影响其出行行为的因素分析 18

3.3.1 我国老人的出行特征 18

3.3.2 影响我国老人出行行为的因素分析 19

3.4 我国老年交通存在的问题 19

3.5 如何应对我国老龄化社会的城市交通问题 20

第四章 城市公交线网规模模型综述 22

4.1 城市公交线网规模的介绍 22

4.1.1 城市公交线网规模的涵义 22

4.1.2 影响城市公交线网规模的因素分析 23

4.2 确定城市公交线网规模模型的方法介绍 24

4.2.1 确定城市公交线网规模的原则 24

4.2.2 匡算城市公交线网规模的确定方法 24

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