摘 要

第一章 前言 6

1.1 本课题研究的目的和意义 6

1.2 交通事故现场再现的国内外研究现状及趋势 7

1.3 本论文研究的主要工作 8

第二章 摄动理论 9

2.1 摄动理论的历史背景 9

2.2 摄动法的发展 9

2.3 摄动理论的概念 9

2.4 随机摄动理论的展开 10

第三章 实际案例分析 14

3.1 实际案例模型 14

3.2 大客车与行人发生接触前瞬间的行驶速度 15

3.3 人车路面接触位置 16

第四章 MATLAB仿真软件的应用 18

4.1 MATLAB 18

4.1.1 MATLAB的基本功能 18

4.1.2 MATLAB的特点 18

4.1.3 MATLAB的常用工具箱 18

4.1.4 MATLAB的应用 20

4.2 MATLAB模型 20

4.2.1 MATLAB函数 20

4..2.2 模型的建立与仿真 22

4.2.3 运行结果分析 24

第五章 误差分析 25

5.1 误差产生的原因 25

5.2 误差分析 28

第六章 总结与展望 31

6.1 总结 31

6.2 展望 31

参考文献 32

致 谢 34

摘 要

交通事故中包含各种各样不确定因素，因此有必要考虑各种因素的不确定性对交通事故分析造成的影响，从而对事故原因做出更接近实际情况的判定。车辆行驶速度与路面接触位置的确定是交通事故分析的重要内容，它是事故再现分析的基础和责任认定的依据。车辆行驶速度与路面接触位置的确定受各种因素的影响，主要包含现场测量的几何参数，环境参数，运动参数以及车辆技术参数，人体参数和试验参数等。而这些参数不可避免地存在测量误差和试验误差，因此必须考虑这些因素的不确定性对车辆行驶速度与路面接触位置分析造成的影响，进而通过不确定性理论给出相应的置信区间和置信度，提高分析和再现结果的精度。以汽车-行人交通事故为例，对车辆行驶速度和人车路面接触位置进行不确定性分析，并与随机模拟方法得到的计算结果进行对比，验证了本文方法的正确性和实用性。

本文将随机理论和摄动技术引入到道路交通事故分析, 考虑道路交通事故中的不确定因素, 通过不确定性分析给出了概率分析结果, 提高了事故分析与再现结果的精度, 使事故分析和责任认定更接近事故的真实情况。

关键词:交通事故; 不确定性;随机摄动;置信区间; 置信度

Abstract

Since there are various kinds of uncertain factors in the traffic accidents，it’s necessary to consider the influences of uncertainty of different factors on the analysis of traffic accident，in order to make the judgments which are closer to the reality to the cause of the accident. Determining the speed of the vehicles and the location contacting with the roads are the important content of the accident analysis，and they’re the base of the analysis of accident reconstruction and the responsibilities identified. The Determining of the speed of the vehicles and the location contacting with the roads is affected by various of factors, and the main factors include geometric parameters measured on the scene environmental parameters, motion parameters and technical parameters of vehicles, human characteristics and test parameters and so on. There are inevitably measurement error and test error of these parameters, so the influence of these factors’ uncertainties to the speed of the vehicles and the location contacting with the roads must be considered. Then , confidence interval and confidence can be given through the uncertainty theory to improve the precision and reliability of traffic accident analysis and reconstruction.A typical vehicle-pedestrian accident is investigated by the method above , and the calculated result is contrasted with Monte Carlo simulation method , which proves that the method adopted in the paper is accurate and effective.

In this theory, random theory and the probabilistic perturbation method are introduced for the uncertainty analysis of traffic accident. Considering the uncertain factors in the road accidents and getting the results of the probability analysis through uncertainty analysis can improve the precision and reliability of traffic accident analysis and reconstruction, so that the accident analysis and the responsibilities identified can be closer to the real situation.

Key words : traffic accident ; uncertainty ; probabilistic perturbation ; confidence interval ; confidence